The Wash Up AFL Round 1
As we explained in our intro, we require a week of data for our modeling to kick in for 1 star bets, 2 weeks for 2 star and 3 weeks for best bets and then after 4 weeks our modeling is really in motion.
3 suggested bets and 2 winners
That said we did put up 3 bets we liked which were Richmond -11.5, Essendon +10.5 and Freo +16.5
We got the chocolates on 2 of the games with Richmond an easy winner, Essendon strong winners over the Hawks but Freo bombed out v Geelong. We were especially pleased with the Essendon win as in our game preamble referenced our view that the Hawks are in trouble this year.
Outsiders covered the line in 6 of the 9 games and won 5 of the games. This is consistent with most Round 1 season openers where the win strike is significantly favoured to outsiders.
We are in for an even AFL betting season
An even season is the No 1 thing we pull out of Round 1. This should be favourable for our betting and certainly supports iTipsports HBM Human Behaviour Model where tight tough games and week in week out peaks and dips in performances supports the variation’s of bookies odds. We are hoping to catch them out.
AFL betting is a tough business and line or handicap betting is our preferred betting tight. Remember these games are at even money ie put $1 on per game to win $1 so we are looking at about a 53% win rate just to break even.
We will put up win bets where we think they are favourable but recent seasons would suggest they are hard to find. An even season with peaks and troughs on a larger than normal scale may see us include more win or 1-39 margin bets. Remember these bets will be a 20% stake or one-fifth bet to a handicap bet, in other words a $100 dollar handicap bet = a $20 win bet.
You can JOIN NOW AFL 2017
Have your starting bank you are prepared to bet on and remember we are not in this to make your fortune. Treat is a fun. Keep your bank to a level you are comfortable with.
Our bets will be either 1 star value, 2 star strong or 3 star best bets, depending on the peak performance levels of sides based on our Human Behaviour Model HBM.
Now we are ready to go and we look forward to you being part of iTipsports AFL 2017.
You can JOIN NOW for only $99 a season at http://test.itipsports.com.au/#